Working Papers on Cultural Policy
Zurich Centre for Creative Economies (ZCCE) / FRÉDÉRIC MARTEL, 2025
This prospective paper is the result of a commission from the Zurich Centre for Creative Economies (ZCCE), at the Zurich University of the Arts (ZHdK). It was conceived in response both to the strategic needs of the ZCCE and to a specific request formulated by the Quality Development Department. It was also presented to the ZHdK’s Board.
Its primary ambition is not to deliver a closed theory of the future, nor to formulate normative prescriptions, but rather to offer a structured horizon of reflection for, first, arts school, but also cultural institutions and policymakers confronted with accelerating transformations in the artistic field. This document should be understood as a forecast exercise, built around thirty-five prospective scenarios for the year 2035.
The document should therefore be read less as a piece of academic research in the strict sense than as a forward-looking report – or, more precisely, as a strategic memorandum grounded in empirical observation. It does not seek to produce definitive knowledge, but to map trajectories, tensions, and plausible futures. It combines a review of relevant literature and ongoing debates with a substantial body of fieldwork, to articulate a set of prospective scenarios for the condition of artists by 2035.
Empirically, the report is based on more than one hundred in-depth qualitative interviews conducted in person between 2023 and 2025 across fifteen countries, primarily in Europe but also beyond. These interviews involved a wide range of actors: visual artists, musicians, designers, writers, students in art schools, curators, managers of cultural institutions, and public policy experts. They include both internationally recognized figures – such as Scott Rothkopf, Director of the Whitney Museum in New York; Hans Ulrich Obrist; or Bernard Blistène, former Director of the Musée National d’Art Moderne at the Centre Pompidou – and lesser-known artists or students at the beginning of their careers. In several cases, entire cohorts were mobilized, notably at the École des Beaux-Arts in Paris, where dozens of students were invited to formulate written reflections on « art and the artist in 2035 ». These materials are integrated throughout the paper.
A deliberate methodological choice was made not to interview members of the ZHdK and only rarely actors based in Switzerland. The objective was to avoid institutional self-reflexivity and to privilege an outward-looking perspective – beyond our own university, and even beyond Switzerland. The ambition is to situate the ZHdK within a global landscape of artistic transformation, rather than to mirror its internal debates.
These qualitative materials are complemented by an extensive review of scientific literature, quantitative studies, policy reports, and academic publications, as well as by a set of models and case studies developed within the ZCCE itself. In particular, the paper draws on four major field studies conducted for the ZHdK on cultural policy in Frankfurt, Lugano, San Sebastián, and Geneva. The resulting corpus forms the empirical and conceptual backbone of the present work.
Over the past years, the ZCCE has already conducted a substantial body of research on many of the issues addressed here: ecology and art, digital transformation and artistic practices, soft power, the future of cultural criticism, and emerging economic models in the creative industries. These works, available on the ZCCE website, constitute a robust corpus that this paper frequently cites and to which it explicitly refers. The present study does not seek to duplicate or exhaustively redevelop these analyses. Its purpose is different. It builds upon these earlier contributions to articulate a synthetic, forward-looking framework. Certain dimensions are therefore intentionally treated in a more schematic manner, not because they are secondary, but because they have already been examined in depth by ZCCE researchers in previous publications. This paper should thus be read as part of a broader and cumulative research ecosystem.
It is essential to underline that most of the ideas, hypotheses, and propositions advanced in this paper reflect the views expressed by the individuals interviewed. They do not represent the positions of the author, nor those of the ZCCE, and even less those of the ZHdK. Several of the twenty-eight scenarios developed in the text articulate perspectives with which the author might or might not disagrees with. Their inclusion is nevertheless deliberate: the aim is not to endorse these visions, but to make them visible, intelligible, and discussable.
Forecast in general and foresight in the arts in particular are inherently fragile. Neither scientific research nor artificial intelligence excels at prediction, and the history of art reminds us that the most decisive movements – from Impressionism to Dada, from Surrealism to Pop Art – were neither anticipated nor theorized in advance. They were named only after their eruption. Yet the contemporary moment imposes the risk of anticipation. The convergence of three major transitions – digital, ecological, and sociopolitical – reshapes the conditions of artistic creation with unprecedented speed. The AI-driven acceleration of production, the intensification of the climate crisis, and the rise of illiberal regimes together redefine the environment in which artists operate.
It is in this context that the present paper proposes twenty-eight prospective scenarios for the future of artists in 2035. These scenarios do not function as predictions but as analytical devices. They delineate possible trajectories, identify emerging tensions, and highlight both risks and opportunities. They are designed to stimulate debate, inform institutional strategy, and provide cultural actors with a structured framework through which to think about the decade ahead.
This study therefore does not express what « we » think, nor what the ZCCE or the ZHdK ought to believe. It seeks instead to delineate what the landscape of artistic creation might look like in 2035, independently of whether these trajectories appear desirable or alarming. Some of the scenarios outlined here are deeply problematic; others may seem promising. All of them, however, are plausible.
Foresight does not consist in selecting the futures we prefer, but in confronting those that may emerge. Anticipating only what we judge « good » would amount to a form of intellectual comfort. The responsibility of a centre devoted to research and strategy is precisely the opposite: to envisage the full spectrum of possible futures – including those we fear – in order to prepare for them lucidly.
This is the purpose of this paper: not to prescribe, not to reassure, and not to moralize, but to anticipate. In doing so, it affirms that uncertainty is not an obstacle to thought, but its very condition.
The ZCCE welcomes critical feedback on this document.
To download the original report: click here.
